Atlanta CNN –
On the final day of overtime in Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock exuded confidence but warned supporters not to get complacent in his runoff with Republican candidate and former football great Herschel Walker.
“There’s still a way for Herschel Walker to win this race,” Warnock said after a campaign stop here on Monday. “If there’s one thing I worry about, it’s that people will think we don’t need their voice. We do. We need you to show up.”
Warnock was the vote-getter in last month’s general election, but the contest was extended until December because he failed to secure a majority. After four weeks of runoff campaigning, Warnock and Democrats are optimistic he can outlast Walker and secure a full six-year term. That victory would help solidify Georgia as a purple state after Joe Biden narrowly carried it in 2020 and Warnock and Jon Ossoff won the January 2021 primaries that handed the president a Democratic Senate.
Tuesday’s race, however, is still expected to be close, with both parties and allied groups pouring tens of millions into a contest that will shape the balance of power in the Senate for the next two years.
Democrats already have control of the chamber, but Warnock’s victory, after the party picked up a seat in Pennsylvania, would give Majority Leader Chuck Schumer one vote and allow Democrats to lead the committees that have been divided since that Biden took office. With that in mind, Walker and a number of GOP senators have implored Republicans to send him to Washington as a check on Biden and his policies.
“We’re working on turnout, turnout, turnout,” Walker said as he walked across North Georgia at five rallies scheduled on the eve of the election. “A vote for Warnock is a vote for these failed policies. A vote for me is a better come.”
During a campaign rally for Warnock in Atlanta last week, former President Barack Obama emphasized the immediate impact of Democrats possibly winning the 51st Senate seat. “It prevents one person from holding everything,” he said, while looking ahead to the upcoming election and its implications.
“It will also put us in a better position in a couple of years, when you have another election and the Senate map tilts in favor of the Republicans,” Obama said. “And it will help prevent Republicans from getting a filibuster-proof majority that would allow them to do things like pass a federal abortion ban.”
In the final act of the 2022 midterm elections, Georgia voters once again have the final say.
In recent weeks, Republican leaders in Georgia have been promoting early participation in in-person voting. That’s despite GOP officials unsuccessfully trying to close the polls on the Saturday after Thanksgiving because of a controversial reading of state voting laws. The Georgia Supreme Court ultimately upheld a lower court’s ruling that allowed them to open.
On Friday, the state broke its single-day record, again, when more than 350,000 people went to the polls to vote before Election Day.
But those numbers, while impressive, came during an early voting period that had condensed significantly from 2021. While several days last week ended with historically high numbers of votes cast, the total number of voters before this runoff, compared to the 2021 election: actually decreased, from about 3.1 million last year to about 1.87 million in 2022. (About 2.5 million voted earlier of election day last month).
Despite the uncertainty some Democrats feel about turnout, especially given Tuesday’s weather forecast, Walker faces big challenges in money and math.
Democrats have more than doubled the GOP’s ad spending in the past month alone, according to an analysis of CNN data by AdImpact. Since Nov. 9, Democrats have spent a staggering $55 million to the GOP’s $26 million on television ads.
Walker is also struggling to overcome an extraordinary 200,000-vote gap between his November vote total and that of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who handily defeated Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. That’s a deficit that complicates Walker’s path as he seeks to win over Republican or Republican-leaning voters who did not turn out for him last month.
However, his GOP supporters are keeping hope alive.
“I think there are a lot of people who regret not getting out to vote last time,” said Elizabeth Walters, a retiree who came to see Walker at a weekend stop in Loganville. “I think it might be close, but I think he’s going to win.”
Optimism is much more muted in many Republican circles in Washington, where a mix of dissatisfaction and disappointment is directed at Walker’s campaign and former President Donald Trump, who recruited him to run.
Trump stayed away from Georgia, but held a telethon Monday night to rally his supporters.
“If Herschel wins this race, the Republicans can make Chuck Schumer’s life a little more difficult, and we can put a stop to all the far-left judges and everything that’s been going on now for the last two years, that’s been going on in our country.” . Trump said in remarks that lasted less than 10 minutes.
“We’re in dire straits in this nation,” said John Hayes, a Republican voter who saw the Walker campaign during a weekend stop. “I think there will be many Republicans who will go out to vote on Tuesday. This is what we need.”
Kemp has gone out of his way to help the cause after embracing Walker for most of the general election campaign. With Trump effectively out of the picture, Kemp has become Walker’s primary stand-in, appearing in a pair of TV ads during his fellow Republican’s runoff.
A Walker victory would be a boon for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the next Congress. And Trump, ignoring all the evidence that his involvement complicated the GOP’s path here, would surely claim vindication.
But the most profound effect of a Walker victory could be to bolster Kemp’s national stature. After defeating a Trump-backed primary challenger last spring and being re-elected by a wide margin last month, he is the rare high-profile Republican to publicly reject Trump’s lies about the stolen 2020 election and maintain, if not, his popularity with the GOP increases. base
Warnock’s effort to strengthen and increase his support among so-called crossover voters has further underlined the growing strength of the Kemp brand. In the run-up to the run-off, Warnock released an ad highlighting voters who said they had backed Kemp and planned to do the same for Warnock on Tuesday.
But in the final sprint, the Democrat has also been looking to energize young voters who, over the past two cycles, have emerged as increasingly crucial parts of the party’s coalition.
At Georgia Tech on Monday, Warnock urged students who had not yet voted to walk out on Tuesday and asked that they encourage their friends and family to do the same.
“I want you to know that your assignment, if you have already voted, your assignment is not done yet. Your mission is to get more friends,” Warnock said. “Call Lottie, Dottie and everybody. Tell them it’s time to vote.”
Warnock was introduced by Florida Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost, who will become the first Generation Z member of Congress.
“We know young people aren’t the biggest voting bloc right now,” Frost said, “but we’re the bloc that matters.”