Our Jones Knows reporter attacks the first Premier League games of 2023…
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea New Year’s Day 4.30pm Live on Sky Sports: PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
The match prices look right to me as Chelsea are likely to do the job against that extra quality in the final third, but Forest will go at it and cause the Londoners problems at various times.
One area that can be fertile for them is game pieces.
I thought Chelsea looked shaky when defending their box under pressure from corners and free kicks against Bournemouth, with the Cherries creating a good 0.29 expected goals value through set pieces with Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke both missing the target near. Since Graham Potter took over, Chelsea’s overall defensive metrics from set pieces have flatlined. They’ve sent 33 shots from those stages against an expected goals backdrop of 3.18 – only six teams have performed worse since the day Potter took over.
With that in mind, Forest’s centre-backs are certainly worth looking at to threaten.
Since Joe Worrall and Willy Boly paired up four games ago, they have had eight shots between them and that doesn’t include Boly’s disallowed goal against Manchester United.
Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boly is 2/1 to have at least one shot in the player shot market. Both prices look great, and I’ll back the 4/5 on offer to have at least a shot against Chelsea as part of my New Year’s double 3/1.