In this important election year, the UK has the most important elections this week, but only open to a few hundred Westminster MPs. It is the vote to update the Conservative Party’s parliamentary governing body, the 1922 committee.
The first task of the new group of 18 Conservative MPs after Monday’s plebiscite will be to agree on the rules for the election of their party’s new leader (i.e. the British Prime Minister). It is expected to be completed in September. A group of MPs have already thrown their hats in the ring, but these could be reduced to a list of two in a matter of days, according to the FT parliamentary team.
The timetable for deciding the new prime minister is important and serious, with UK inflation the highest in the G7 and the country’s growth next year (if it grows at all) is expected to be the slowest, according to the IMF. There is a critical need for someone competent to guide the country during the interim period before the public decides their government again through a general election.
A passenger gets on an underground train in London. There are more problems with the train on the cards © Dan Kitwood / Getty Images
In addition, the British summer of discontent continues. In any case, it is gaining strength. Criminal lawyers will be back on Monday, for the reasons explained in this piece by a privileged person. There are more problems with the train with the Aslef unions, which represents the machinists, and TSSA, which represents more than 6,000 Network Rail workers, voting in favor of the strike. And on Friday, a vote for industrial action closes for members of the university and university unions in a separate dispute over low wages, uncontrollable workloads and professional respect. This could lead to more disruptions for students at UK universities and colleges once this long hot summer of riots is over.
Economic data
It’s a busy week for major economic data announcements, including inflation figures for the US, UK, France and Germany, possibly an indication of whether the rising cost of living is approaching the maximum, in addition of GDP data from China and the United Kingdom.
The Federal Reserve publishes its latest Beige Book on the current state of the U.S. economy, and the rate-setting committees of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea could raise their respective rates by 50 basis points. In addition, Croatia is being accepted as the last member of the eurozone group.
Companies
U.S. banks will kick off the U.S. earnings season this week, with a forecast of excellent results thanks to a series of Fed interest rate hikes. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup to see a growth in net interest income, the difference between what banks pay depositors and what they earn with loans and other assets.
The big fear is the recession. Banks are usually the most affected stocks during falls. When problems appear on the horizon, the pressure increases to increase capital reserves in the event that existing loans turn out badly.
Read the full week calendar here