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That’s all from me, Helen Sullivan, thanks for following along. We’ll be shutting down this blog shortly, but you can stay up to date with our story here:
Strength to all the journalists of the rhythm of Brazil, it will be an intense 28 days:
“The campaign starts tomorrow. I’m sorry that you journalists will have to work a little longer,” Lula told reporters. The journalists go 🤯 ðŸ˜
— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 3, 2022
The bell tower of Minas Gerais works. We previously reported that the huge state of Brazil has correctly chosen the winner of every national election since 1989.
Tonight’s results, from journalist Bruno Fonseca: “Election for president in Brazil in the first image. Monday in Minas. Pretty much the same distribution.”
A more optimistic view of tonight’s results, from Dawisson Belém Lopes, professor of international politics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Brazil:
“5 percentage points. 6 million votes… The good news: there is no “margin of error”. No advantage is speculated; it’s a real plus.”
5 percentage points. 6 million votes.
This is the asset that needs to be protected and extended for 1 month.
The good news: there is no “margin for error.”
No advantage is speculated; it’s a real plus.
— Dawisson Belém Lopes (@dbelemlopes) October 3, 2022 Damian Carrington
Bolsonaro became president in early 2019 and has cut environmental protections and promoted the colonization of the forest. The research shows that CO2 emissions doubled in 2019 and 2020 compared to the average of the previous decade, driven by increasing deforestation and fires as law enforcement collapsed.
The latest data shows that almost a million hectares of rainforest have burned in the last year. In the month to September 26, fires soared to their highest levels in a decade. Brazil’s national space research agency, INPE, reported 36,850 fire alerts in the region, more than twice as many as in the entire month of 2021.
According to Amazon researchers, the increase may be due to those illegally destroying the forest taking the last chance to grab land before the election.
Read more:
Brazil’s electoral authority has declared that Lula has won 14 states and the foreign vote in the first round, and Bolsonaro has won 14 states.
As you can see from the map below (and the tracker here), the results are roughly split by geography, with the poorer north of the country favoring Lula.
Damian Carrington
The fate of the Amazon depends on the final outcome of Brazil’s national election, according to experts, who say continued rampant destruction under President Jair Bolsonaro could push the world’s largest rainforest beyond a tipping point. of irreversible inflection.
Instead, a victory for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who oversaw a sharp decline in deforestation while in power, could see deforestation drop by 90 percent, scientists estimate.
The Amazon rainforest plays a vital role in the global climate as a major store of carbon dioxide, but recent research has shown that fires and logging have left the region emitting more CO2 than it absorbs. Researchers showed in March that the Amazon was approaching a tipping point, after which the forest would be lost, with profound implications for global climate and biodiversity.
Tom Phillips
In case you are just joining us:
Brazil’s hard-fought presidential race will go into a runoff after former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to win the overall majority he needed to avoid a runoff with far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
With more than 99.5% of the votes counted, the left-wing veteran had secured 48.3% of the vote, not enough to avoid an October 30 showdown with his right-wing rival. Bolsonaro, who significantly beat pollsters’ predictions and will be buoyed by the result, received 43.3%.
Addressing the media at a hotel in downtown São Paulo, Lula, who was president from 2003 to 2010, struck a defiant tone, declaring: “The fight continues until our final victory.”
“We win this election; this for us is simply an extension,” vowed Lula, who was barred from the 2018 election that saw Bolsonaro elected, on corruption charges that were later overturned.
With the final results of the first round close, Lula maintains his 5%, or 6 million vote, lead over Bolsonaro:
As we previously reported, 30 million Brazilians did not vote in this round.
Bolsonaro appeals to poor Brazilians in response to the result
Andrew Downie reports for the Guardian that Jair Bolsonaro, speaking to the media in Brasilia, has promised to spend more time convincing the poorest sectors of society that they will be better off under a far-right government than a leftist one.
Four weeks before the October 30 runoff election, Bolsonaro said: “I understand that there were many votes (cast) for the condition of the Brazilian people, who feel that prices are rising, especially basic products. I understand that many people want change, but some changes can be for the worse.”
“We tried to show that other side in the campaign, but it doesn’t seem to have registered with the most important layers of society.”
Brazilian President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro speaks to his supporters after learning the results of the legislative and presidential elections in Brasilia, October 2, 2022. Photo: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images
Referring to his pandemic policy of keeping businesses open as much as possible, the anti-masker added: “Now we will show the Brazilian people, especially the most affected, that it was a consequence of the policy of ‘stay aa home, later we will worry about the economy, a foreign war and also an ideological crisis”.
He said once again that Brazil must avoid following neighboring nations such as Chile and Colombia that recently elected leftist leaders, but he deliberately refused to answer questions about possible election fraud, after spending months criticizing the security of electronic voting machines.
Bolsonaro has hinted that he will not step down if defeated, raising concerns of a Trump-like insurgency among his supporters if Lula wins.
Brazilian sociologist Nara Roberta Silva has shared her take on tonight’s surprising results, which support Jill Langlois’s earlier report that centrist voters who were expected not to vote for either Lula or Bolsonaro switched to Bolsonaro in the last moment “The far right is here to stay,” he said.
Many imagined that some last-minute votes would go for Lula, but the move was the other way around. The 3rd and 4th candidates (center of the political spectrum) had worse results than expected, but their votes seem to have gone in favor of Bolsonaro 2/
— Nara Roberta Silva (@nararosilva) October 3, 2022
Following the pattern of other countries, the extreme right in Brazil is here to stay; we can really say goodbye to the “sensitive” right, as I discussed in my analysis a few days ago. Bolsonaro/Bolsonarism is deeply rooted in Brazilian society 3/
— Nara Roberta Silva (@nararosilva) October 3, 2022
The second round is a new election, almost starting from scratch. The left leaves tonight demoralized; Bolsonaro and his supporters will push even harder on claims of fraud, etc. I certainly expect more political violence 4/
— Nara Roberta Silva (@nararosilva) October 3, 2022
Although the left was able to put some good ones in the legislatures, the House and Senate still have a right-wing majority, and some of Bolsonaro’s key names were elected. Even if Lula wins, his life will be hell, as I also predicted a few days ago 6/6
— Nara Roberta Silva (@nararosilva) October 3, 2022
Lula only wants one thing for her birthday, she doesn’t care if it’s a few days late:
“I have a birthday on the 27th, and the elections are on the 30th. This will be my present. The next few days will be for us to improve more, talk to more people,” he tweeted.
My birthday is on the 27th, and the election is on the 30th. This will be my present. The next few days will be for us to improve more, talk to more people.
— Lula 13 (@LulaOficial) October 3, 2022
Lula will be off for the next four weeks, tweeting in Portuguese: “I love to campaign. And we have 28 more days. I love to hold rallies, get on a truck. And it will be the first chance to have a face-to-face debate with the current president. So that we can make comparisons between the Brazil he built and the one we built.”
I love campaigning. And we have 28 more days. I love rallying, getting on a truck. And it will be the first opportunity to have a face-to-face debate with the current president. So that we can make comparisons between the Brazil he built and the Brazil we built.
— Lula 13 (@LulaOficial) October 3, 2022
The Mexican president, Andrés Manuel, has congratulated Lula, who does not seem to know that there will be another vote.
In a tweet in Spanish, Manuel wrote: “Congratulations, brother and comrade Lula. The people of Brazil demonstrated once again their democratic vocation and, especially, their inclination for equality and justice.
Congratulations, brother and comrade Lula. The people of Brazil demonstrated once again their democratic vocation and, especially, their inclination for equality and justice.
— Andrés Manuel (@lopezobrador_) October 3, 2022
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken congratulated Brazil on “a successful first-round election” and said the US was confident the next round would go as well:
We congratulate the people and institutions of Brazil for holding successful elections in the first round and support their free exercise of the right to choose their next leader. We share Brazil’s confidence that the second round will take place in…