Global carbon emissions from energy will peak in 2025 thanks to a massive increase in government spending on clean fuels in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to analysis by leading organization energy of the world.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said government spending on clean energy in response to the crisis would mark a “historic turning point” in the transition from fossil fuels, in its annual report on global energy
The invasion of Ukraine has caused a worldwide energy crisis, with an initial increase in global gas prices. The crisis has led to high inflation that has made households poorer around the world.
Governments have been scrambling to find other sources of energy. Some analysts have questioned whether fears about energy security could lead to longer fossil fuel use, slowing the global race to net zero carbon emissions. Some countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom under former Prime Minister Liz Truss, have pledged to encourage fossil fuel extraction in an attempt to lower prices.
However, Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA and one of the world’s most influential energy economists, said the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion “will actually accelerate the transition to clean energy.”
The IEA said planned investments in green energy in response to the crisis meant that, for the first time, government policies would lead to demand for polluting fossil fuels peaking this decade. The agency cited notable contributions from the US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s emissions reduction package and actions by Japan, South Korea, China and India.
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Under the new plans, investment in low-carbon energy such as solar, wind and nuclear will rise to $2 trillion (£1.7 trillion) by 2030, an increase of more than 50% from nowadays. However, annual investment in clean energy would need to reach $4 trillion by 2030 to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, a figure that illustrates the scale of the challenge facing governments around the world world
The IEA’s analysis showed that current government policies will still lead to a 2.5°C increase in global temperatures, which would have catastrophic climate impacts. This would be well above the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C target, agreed at the Paris climate conference, would avoid the worst effects of climate breakdown.
The analysis adds to a consensus among scientists that governments are not doing enough to prevent climate disaster. A separate UN study, published on Wednesday, also found that the government’s commitments so far to cut emissions will lead to 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming.
The wave of clean energy investment will also cost Russia $1 trillion in lost fossil fuel revenue by 2030 compared to before the invasion, Birol said. Russia, previously the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, would have a “much reduced role in international energy affairs” as the world’s reliance on burning methane gas for energy declines, he added.
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“The golden age of gas is coming to an end,” Birol said.
Birol said the crisis had not changed the IEA’s assessment, first published last year, that all new fossil fuel projects would need to stop immediately for the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050. New oil and gas extraction projects “will jeopardize our climate goals”. “He said.
He also rejected criticism from some climate deniers that clean energy spending had contributed to rising energy prices, saying that argument “hid who caused the energy crisis, which is Russia.” The IEA found that higher shares of renewable energy were correlated with lower electricity prices.
“None of the government leaders complained about too much clean energy,” Birol said. “They complain that they don’t have enough clean energy.”