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The liberal Navigator Public Tracking poll showed a major warning sign for Democrats in mid-October, reporting a 20 percentage point jump since September in the share of independent voters concerned about the economy and gas prices.
These were not the only data that showed a turn of the tide in the battle for Congress. Regional challenges had been showing up in internal Democratic polls from deep blue sanctuaries in the Pacific Northwest, New York and even Rhode Island, Democratic strategists say. Crime, a major focus of Republican advertising, has also become a major issue in several races.
Candidates say they have felt the change in terrain.
“The economic concern is definitely worse, and I think that’s probably part of what has eroded the concern about abortion rights,” said Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, 34, a Democratic congressional candidate in southern Washington state. .
Democrats are fighting to keep their majority in Congress. This is his plan of attack for the 2022 midterm elections, which usually flip the House. (Video: Blair Guild/The Washington Post)
Perez is a symbol of Democratic struggles, fighting a margin-of-error race against exactly the kind of “ultra-MAGA” candidate Democrats have elevated this year: Republican Joe Kent, who denies the outcome of the 2020, argues the US. The Capitol rioters have been roughed up and want a moratorium on all legal immigration. But Washington Democrats have not yet been able to invest directly in his career, playing defense elsewhere on far less favorable issues.
“Anyone in the real world is very concerned about crime, very concerned about the price of groceries,” said Perez, whose auto repair shop, in Northeast Portland, has broken down four times during the last year
Instead of expanding their ambitions, Democratic strategists are now trying to keep voters, donors and volunteers from losing their tempers. While there is broad agreement that the environment has deteriorated in recent weeks, it is much stronger for Democrats than it was in the spring, they argue.
“It’s a lot better than it was. It’s not harder than we thought,” said Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who has said he wishes there was more money to fund Perez. “We’re midterm in a difficult economic climate against a very well-resourced opponent. It’s supposed to be difficult. It’s not supposed to be a straight line.”
President Biden also tried to quell any sense of Democratic panic on Friday, when he predicted fortunes would improve again ahead of the Nov. 8 election.
“It’s been back and forth with them ahead, us ahead, them ahead. From here to there. And the polls have been all over the place. I think we’re going to see more change on our side in the last few days,” he said at the White House. “I think we’re going to see more change on our side in the last few days.”
Unlike the Senate, where a handful of high-profile races will decide control, the next House majority will come together like a jigsaw puzzle on Election Day, with pieces chosen by retirements, redistricting, recruitment failures, national mood and regional concerns. The GOP is almost certain to pick up at least some of the five seats they need to take control through new district lines and a few more in key races where Democrats have all but stopped spending. But Democrats are also in a position to unseat some Republican incumbents.
The real open questions are the dozens of races where the polls offer no clear signal. Many more Democratic seats are on a knife’s edge than Republicans, subject to unknown factors such as turnout and the whims of voters in the coming weeks. Predicting the exact outcome has been made even more difficult because the 2020 polls failed to see the strong night the Republican House candidates had. On the other hand, recent special elections this cycle have shown that Democrats are outperforming expectations.
“The election is so close that we’re just past the point of national polls that have the ability to tell us where we stand. It’s going to be race-by-race at this point,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who has worked with the DCCC. “The big question that remains is whether the Democratic overperformance in public polls in recent elections continues with current voting.”
For now, Republicans have the momentum, with Democratic margins in Senate races across the country eroding over the past month and alarming polls coming out of Democratic strongholds like Washington and New York showing Democrats in the entire state only has single-digit leads. The generic polling averages, which look at whether voters prefer a Republican or an unnamed Democrat for Congress, have also started to move toward Republicans, who are currently 8 to 10 points more favorable to the GOP than they are right now of 2020.
“Issues that heavily favor Republicans, like the economy and crime, continue to gain importance among voters as we get closer to Election Day,” said Michael McAdams, director of communications for the Republican National Congressional Committee. “This has created a dire situation for the Democrats.”
The shift came despite Democrats spending huge amounts of money advertising on the abortion issue and the Supreme Court’s June decision striking down abortion rights in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
“The whole set of issues is working against us. It’s very difficult for a Democrat in a marginal district,” said another Democratic House strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. “There was a lot of attention to abortion immediately afterDobbs. Over time the immediacy has dissipated. The everyday reality of buying gas and buying groceries has overtaken him.”
The reality of gas prices has become something of an obsession for Democratic leaders, who have seen their fortunes rise and fall with the numbers posted daily at roadside stations. Prices peaked domestically in mid-June at more than $5 a gallon, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, before falling to $3.65 in mid-September and then climbing back to 3, $91 in mid-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration. .
Last week, they fell slightly again, prompting Biden to announce, “We’re moving in the right direction.”
Democratic strategists continue to argue that their focus on abortion rights in advertising is good strategy, despite criticism from some in their party. They say internal party research finds there are still many voters who have not fully digested the implications of the new legal reality. Democrats remain hopeful the issue could boost turnout, overcoming a slight electoral enthusiasm lead Republicans have held in national polls all year.
“If I told you we were going into a midterm with Democrats in total control and disapproval of the economy and high inflation, that midterm should be over by now,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who works in various races. “The reality of the abortion issue, the flawed Republican candidates and the Democrat’s progress on some of the agenda are the reasons we’re still having the conversation.”
In recent weeks, Democrats have canceled television reservations in Arizona, Texas and Wisconsin, all but granting pick-ups for Republicans in three districts where Democrats chose not to seek re-election. The party has also been alarmed by polls showing Republican Allan Fung, the former mayor of Cranston, R.I., top Democrat state treasurer Seth Magaziner in the New England heartland, in a state that does not elect a Republican. in Congress since the nineties.
Meanwhile, Republicans have been testing Democratic limits with their additional spending. The Congressional Leadership Fund announced a $4 million investment in the district of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), the head of the DCCC, fulfilling a longstanding GOP plan to make life difficult for Democratic strategists, who now they have to worry. that the man leading the effort could lose his seat.
In places like Washington’s 3rd District, which hugs Oregon’s northern border, Perez has been outspending Kent on television over his own fundraising.
But he has yet to receive direct ad help from the DCCC or House Majority PAC, the outside super PAC that supports House Democrats, although Kent’s ads include a disclaimer crediting some of the spending to the NRCC . Nor has she been named to the Democratic Party’s Red-to-Blue program, which helps candidates flip seats. Persico, the head of the DCCC, has described his district as a winnable race that he would invest in if he “had more money.”
“This is one of the golden opportunities,” Perez said Saturday. “And we’re really getting ahead of ourselves right now.”
Isaac Arnsdorf contributed to this report.