A drought is to be declared in large areas of England after a meeting of experts, The Guardian has learned.
Prolonged drought conditions, with some areas of the country not receiving significant rainfall all summer, have prompted the National Drought Group to declare an official drought, according to leaked documents from a meeting seen by The Guardian on Friday.
The Environment Agency will switch to drought in eight of its 14 areas: Devon and Cornwall, Solent and South Downs, Kent and South London, Hertfordshire and North London, East Anglia, Thames, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire and the East Midlands.
Leaked documents show they expect two more areas to go into drought by the end of August. These are Yorkshire and the West Midlands.
The group met earlier this summer to discuss the lack of rain and decided to put the country in a “prolonged dry weather state”, the first of four stages of a dry weather emergency and a step ahead of drought . Now, the country has moved to this second stage.
This means water rationing can take place across the country, with fewer barriers to water companies wanting to ban customers from using hoses and washing their cars with tap water. More severe measures can also be put in place at this stage, including a ban on the use of sprinklers for cleaning buildings, vehicles and windows.
At the meeting they were shown chilling statistics about England’s food security. Half the potato crop is expected to fail as it cannot be irrigated, and even crops that are usually drought tolerant, such as maize, have failed.
The group said “irrigation options are diminishing with the rapid depletion of reservoirs,” and losses of between 10% and 50% are expected for crops such as carrot, onion, sugar beet, apples and hops. Milk production has also fallen nationally due to a lack of feed for cows, and wildfires are endangering large tracts of farmland.
Dry fields and meadows at Finedon, Northamptonshire. Photo: Joe Giddens/PA
Farmers are deciding whether to drill crops for next year, and there are concerns that many will choose not to, with dire consequences for the 2023 crop.
The group contains representatives from water companies, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Environment Agency (EA), the National Farmers’ Union, Natural England, CCW, Ofwat, Water UK and the Drinking Water Inspectorate, as well as the Angling Trust and the Rivers Trust.
Although previous dry summers have been offset by wet autumns, meaning the worst effects on water supplies have not affected, those present at the meeting were told it was unlikely to be this year, with the arid conditions expected due to the climate breakdown.
The most important stories on the planet. Get all the environmental news of the week: the good, the bad and the essential
Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertisements, and content sponsored by third parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
The EA slides say: “An increased likelihood of warm conditions from August to October is consistent with increased westerly flow from warmer-than-average seas and our warming climate. With a typical gradation of rain from the northwest (wetter) to the southeast (drier) is likely, there are no strong signs for a significant improvement from the current dry conditions.”
Catherine Sefton, hydrologist at the UK’s Center for Ecology and Hydrology, said: “In south-east England, continued dry weather means that many river flows remain remarkably or exceptionally low, and hydrological forecasts suggest that this situation will persist during the coming months.
“Where river flows are supported by groundwater recharge during the winter months, the impact of dry weather is reduced. But a continuation of below-average rainfall in a second winter would likely result in a severe hydrologic and environmental drought, with further intensification of water supply restrictions and fish rescues that we are beginning to see in the Southeast.”
The last time a drought was announced was in 2018, when water companies across the country instituted hose bans. Although research has yet to be conducted to determine whether this year’s drought was caused by the weather disruption, Climate Change found that 2018’s dry conditions and extreme heat were 30 times more likely due to climate change.
Scotland and Wales have similar drought response groups, which are also understood to be meeting this summer after drier than usual conditions.