7:41 a.m.: There is a “growing sense” that the Padres are the most likely landing spot for not only Soto, but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There is some momentum in these talks, he adds. Similarly, Jesse Dougherty of the Post tweets that the Nationals are starting to narrow the field.
San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying to unload the rest of that contract for over a year now. Speculatively, if the Nats really want to maximize Soto’s (and perhaps Bell’s) performance, they could be the ones to absorb the remaining three years and $39 million of Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for a team, sure, but the Nats have little else on the payroll in the immediate future.
7:12 a.m.: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now less than 12 hours away, and the possibility of a Juan Soto trade that has captivated the entire sport and its fan base remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was widely believed to be a three-team bidding war, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers heavily involved. That doesn’t stop another team (or teams) from jumping in to make a late push, of course; Frankly, it would be a surprise if that didn’t happen, in fact. Teams will miss other targets, priorities will pivot, and positions on “off-limits” prospects will soften.
A sticking point for the Cardinals thus far has been their unwillingness to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their top prospects, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Carlson, 23, is known to be of interest to the Nats as an immediate complement in the outfield, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (by Baseball America), that’s not surprising, even if he’s been more of a solid regular than a star so far in his young career. The switch-hitting Carlson is hitting .260/.334/.426 since last season, and has lowered his strikeout rate considerably this season.
Carlson can be controlled for another four years beyond the current season and is capable of handling all three outfield spots. Perhaps there is a sense that, given his youth and pedigree, he has another team that he has yet to tap into. Further clouding the Cardinals’ possibility, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Washington may not be as high on lefty Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote something similar a couple of weeks ago.
As for the Padres, the health of one of their best young arms, lefty MacKenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore has been shut down with an elbow strain. He is expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury to a potential key pitcher in the deal has surely altered the Nats’ valuation. Meanwhile, the Padres have already passed the luxury tax threshold after their impressive addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They have reportedly refused to cross that line for the second season in a row. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if that means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “won’t mind moving completely” over the tax line.
In Los Angeles, the Dodgers have become increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past two days, according to Jack Harris of the LA Times . The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is loaded with great prospects — they currently have seven of Baseball America’s top 100 farm workers — and they also possess young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggest infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and right-hander Dustin May (close to returning from Tommy John surgery, three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.
As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported to be a “long shot,” the Rangers were not said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto had indicated that his team was unlikely to land Soto Adding to that list of teams that inquired but seem unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians investigated Soto, but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in Cleveland’s top pitcher, Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in the talks as he has been sidelined since April with a knee injury.