The clock is officially ticking on a trade for Matthew Tkachuk.
On Thursday, the NHLPA announced that the Calgary club’s arbitration hearing with Tkachuk has been scheduled for Aug. 11. This is good news for the Flames, because the deadline for these hearings is from July 27 to August 11, and that it is set for the last day of this window gives them as much time as possible to find a trade.
So now we have an end date, and it’s not far off.
What we know about Matthew Tkachuk doesn’t want to sign long-term in Calgary. @TheAthletic staff offers our thoughts on this question and more…
— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) July 20, 2022
Meanwhile, as Calgary works through the teams on the list of clubs Tkachuk is willing to sign a long-term contract with, I gathered some of my colleagues from The Athletic and beyond to evaluate five trade proposals the Blues could offer. flames
Hailey Salvian is our Flames writer and can give us an idea of what they might want in return, and Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn, two of our national writers, can provide analysis of those potential deals.
Hart Levine, who operates PuckPedia, will evaluate these proposals from a salary cap perspective. The Blues are currently $125,000 over the 2022-23 cap hit of $82.5 million, so we’ll have to account for Tkachuk’s $9 million-plus salary next season, which would put the blues in an in and out situation of dollars.
First, let’s hear from Salvian about what he might need.
“In exchange for Tkachuk, the Flames will look for a package that includes controllable assets, whether that’s young prospects in their entry-level deals or established players with years under team control. They won’t want to trade Tkachuk for a player that may leave in a year or two.
“My guess is that an ideal package looks like a combination of an established NHL player, a top prospect and a high draft pick. In terms of real needs, it will be important to find high-end talent to replace that the Flames have lost this summer.. It’s also possible, with Tkachuk in control of the situation, that the Flames approach this as getting the best possible deal, rather than filling specific holes in the lineup.
The Blues have players, prospects and picks that may interest the Flames. The problem is, with some of those team-controlled players having no-trade clauses, there may not be many prospects in the pipeline worth considering in a Tkachuk trade, and in the meantime, general manager Doug Armstrong he already moved his 2023 second-round pick to the last one. season contract with Detroit for defenseman Nick Leddy.
For reference, here are the 10 Blues players who have some form of trade protection:
Clause of the player’s contract
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Total without trade
Modified list of 12 teams without exchange
The list of 7 teams without exchange has been modified
And these are the best prospects in the Blues system:
Player Position Drafted Age
Jake Neighbors
RW-LW
1st round (No. 26) 2020
20
Zachary Bolduc
c
1st round (No. 17) 2021
19
Scott Perunovich
d
2nd Round (No. 45) 2018
23
Jimmy Snugger
RW
1st round (No. 23) 2022
18
And here’s a look at the draft picks the Blues have over the next three years:
Year 1st round2nd round3rd round
2023
the blue ones
Marketed in Detroit
the blue ones
2024
the blue ones
the blue ones
the blue ones
2025
the blue ones
the blue ones
the blue ones
For the purposes of this article, we will not consider no-trade clauses because we cannot assume whether players will waive them or not. We’ll have to fix that missing second-round pick, which won’t be easy because the Blues may be hesitant to give up top players, prospects and a first-round pick, and from Calgary’s perspective, a third-rounder could not be enough
We’ll also focus on the players that make the most sense for Armstrong to move. For example, Jordan Kyrou is a talented young player that the team may not be able to afford to re-sign if they get Tkachuk; Vladimir Tarasenko, of course, has asked for a trade; and with eight defensemen under one-time contracts, Marco Scandella and Scott Perunovich are other names you’ll see a lot.
Proposal no. 1
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames get: Kyrou, Torey Krug, Zachary Bolduc
Gentille: If you had told me earlier this week that I had to do a Tkachuk hypothetical and had 30 seconds to do it, this is where I would have landed. It almost makes too much sense. Kyrou is a wonderful young player who can help Calgary today, tomorrow and beyond with franchise potential. Krug works at both ends; the Blues need to clear cap space, and he has an average annual value of $6.5 million, and the Flames aren’t interested in a complete teardown. Krug would help. Bolduc is a prospect with pedigree and second line potential. This is as fair as it will get. Everyone wins.
Luszczyszyn: If the Blues get Tkachuk, sending Kyrou back to the Flames is a must as a starting point. Kyrou proved to be a legitimate top-line forward last year, and he’s the obvious centerpiece, but there’s still a lot more to come. Tkachuk is a superstar — one of the few players in the league projected to be worth four wins. Krug is fine, but defense is not a necessity for the Flames and his contract has negative value. Zach Bolduc is a good prospect, but his upside probably isn’t enough to bridge the gap.
PuckPedia: This is a net savings of $300,000 for the Blues with Tkachuk at $9 million, so it’s basically neutral when adding another roster player. Kyrou has one more year at $2.8 million and is then a restricted free agent with arbitration rights (requiring a qualifying offer of $3.2 million) and an unrestricted free agent eligible in 2025 (two years after your current contract expires). Calgary would have control of the team for three years, along with Krug for five years. St. Louis can fit this year, and would have $21 million in cap space next year for 12 players, with Ryan O’Reilly and Tarasenko as key free agents.
Proposal no. 2
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames get: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ivan Barbashev, 2023 first round pick
Gentille: Here’s our “win now” package for the Flames. That gives him some prestige, and I think it would count as a win for Armstrong. A year ago, Tarasenko seemed unmovable. Here, it’s an important component in a Tkachuk trade. Calgary gets a 30-goal replacement, albeit an older one with an expiring deal. As for Barbashev, I’m not sure how many people are aware of how good he was last season. He’s also cheap, at $2.25 million for one more season. The problem is, Calgary seems to be looking for players with team control on the books, and they’re not getting it. Perhaps the prospect of investing one (or both) at the deadline would be appealing. It’s a good package; I’m not sure it checks enough boxes for the Flames.
Luszczyszyn: This deal includes a first-round pick, which is nice, but if Tkachuk goes the other way to a team that was close to contention last year, it’s likely a late first-round pick . That’s not very attractive for a player of Tkachuk’s caliber, and the value of the player coming elsewhere isn’t enough. Tarasenko had a nice resurgence last season, but he’s older, far from Tkachuk’s level, and a year away from unrestricted free agency. I’m not too high on Barbashev either. Combining trade 1 and 2 is somehow closer, but neither is enough.
PuckPedia: This is a net savings of $750,000 for the Blues with Tkachuk at $9 million, making it cap neutral when adding another roster player. As pending UFAs, Calgary could lose both Tarasenko and Barbashev for nothing in a year, leaving only the final first-round pick. This would fit the head for St. Louis this season, while next year would be a challenge with only $14 million in cap space for 13 players, while they would need to re-sign Kyrou and O’Reilly. However, getting Tkachuk for such a low trade cost makes figuring out next season’s cap situation a good problem to solve going forward.
Proposal no. 3
Blues get: Tkachuk
Flames get: Kyrou, Jake Neighbors, Scandella, 2023 third-round pick
Gentille: Seems like a high price to pay for the Blues, doesn’t it? I don’t think we need to talk much more about Kyrou. It’s very good and soon to be very expensive. There seems to be concern about Neighbors’ ceiling, but he also has a lot going for him: size, skill, personality and skating that, according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, has improved. Scandella is a cap dump, but not big enough to make Tkachuk a one-stop shop. It’s not far off, but I’m not sure Calgary has enough leverage to make it happen.
Luszczyszyn: A similar item to Trade 1, but swapping Bolduc for Neighbors. I don’t know enough about the prospects to say which one is more attractive; they are probably interchangeable as the team’s top prospect. But neither looks like the kind of high-end prospect that moves the needle on a deal like this. One of them must be included with Kyrou, but the Blues must give up more. I don’t think a third is enough, especially if the team is dumping Scandella’s salary in the process.
PuckPedia: That’s a net hit of $2.925 million for St. Louis with Tkachuk at $9 million, which puts them $3.05 million over the cap, meaning they would have to make another cap-clearing move to comply this season. Their cap situation would be better next year with $17 million available for 12 players. This deal allows Calgary two young players with three and seven years of team control, respectively, while maintaining cap flexibility for this season. Scandella has two years left at $3.275 million, worst case scenario could be…