The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its long-term forecast for Australia’s upcoming severe weather season.
Its outlook for October to April warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding in eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above-average number of tropical cyclones and tropical depressions .
Let’s break it down and see what it might look like for each state.
New South Wales
With dams full and river levels high, any rain has the potential to cause widespread flooding in eastern Australia, according to the BOM.
It has also forecast an increased risk of widespread and prolonged river flooding in eastern Australia.
The forecast suggests a normal risk of storms, which means the usual storm water in northern New South Wales, bringing lots of hail.
Its forecast warns that coastal tides are expected to be unusually high around January 23, 2023.
The bureau says high tides are likely to cause flooding in low-lying areas and this could lead to more severe coastal flooding if coastal or coastal storms occur at the same time.
Meanwhile, the eastern region, which includes New South Wales, has a 74% chance of more tropical cyclones than the average of four.
Wet conditions mean spring bushfire potential is lower than average in parts of New South Wales.
Queensland
Like New South Wales, unusually high tides are expected around 23 January 2023 along the southern Queensland coast.
On the coasts of North Queensland, including in the Torres Strait, the highest tides are expected on 20 February 2023.
According to the BOM, these high tides are likely to cause flooding in low-lying areas.
Queensland also faces an increased risk of flooding as rain will fall into wet basins in many areas.
The eastern region, which includes Queensland, has a 74% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than its average of four.
Full dams and high rivers mean any rain has the potential to cause widespread flooding in eastern Australia. (Provided by Matt Grbin)
Victory
The bureau is warning Victorians to be alert for storm surge if conditions are dry in late spring and early summer.
This event happens when warm days are followed by thunderstorms and can especially affect people who suffer from hay fever.
The bureau says there is a high risk of grass fires in South Australia, with recent rains fueling vegetation growth.
Western Australia
According to the BOM, there is a good chance of more cyclones than usual in Western Australia.
This will be caused by warm ocean waters, which have the potential to drive increased rainfall and cyclone activity in the Kimberley and Pilbara.
Western Australia is forecast to have a 69 per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than average.
Northern Territory
The bureau says an early start to the wet season is the result of warmer waters from a combination of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean and a negative Indian Ocean dipole to the west.
Central Australia has a high fire risk.
The northern region of Australia has a 61% chance of more tropical cyclones than the average of two to three cyclones per season.
According to the bureau, about three-quarters of tropical cyclones in the northern region have some kind of impact on coastal regions.
South Australia
While there is some influence from the Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña climate factors at the moment, the BOM does not expect it to be as wet in southern Australia as it is likely to be further east.
That’s according to ABC weather reporter Kate Doyle.
He said most of the state’s rain comes from westerly winds during winter and as high pressure systems descend, it brings hot, dry summers for South Australia.
The BOM’s national forecasts are for an elevated risk of grass fires in southern Australia and an increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas, along with higher humidity.
tasmania
The national outlook shows heatwaves may last longer, be warmer overnight and be wetter in southern areas, according to the BOM.
A high grassfire risk has also been predicted for South Australia.
As a result of the recent rains, vegetation has seen more growth and according to the BOM, it will not take many dry days in a row for the grasses to dry out, increasing the risk of grass fires in South Australia.
Australian Capital Territory
BOM national forecasts predict an increased risk of widespread flooding in eastern Australia.
The potential for wildfires in eastern states during the summer is considered normal.
However, the BOM predicts that due to high river levels and full dams in eastern Australia, any rain could lead to widespread flooding.