Half of the 14 playoff spots are up for grabs after the first game of Week 16. Here’s where the NFL playoff picture stands after the Jaguars’ 19-3 win over the Jets on Thursday night. The odds listed to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all through The AthleticThe NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock. Projected playoff chances have been adjusted to account for potential Week 18 rest scenarios and injuries to quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill.
Image from the AFC playoffs
SeedTeamRecordWeek 16 result
x-1
11-3
to CHI
y-2
11-3
against SEA
x-3
10-4
horse WHAT
4
7-7
vs. LOVE
5
9-5
vs. ATL
6
8-6
in IN
7
8-6
against GB
x — Playoff spot secured | y — Securing division title
Buffalo Bills
With three games in the AFC East standings, the Bills can clinch their third straight division title with a win or tie against the Bears on Saturday or a Dolphins loss or tie against the Packers on Sunday.
Remaining schedule: at Bears, at Bengals, vs. patriots
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 60.1 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 14.2 percent
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs clinched their seventh straight AFC West title in Week 15, so the hunt for the first No. 1 seed is all that’s left for them. After losing back-to-back matchups against both the Bills and Bengals, the Chiefs will need to finish with a better record than both teams in order to secure a first-round bye and home field advantage during the conference championship round.
Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks vs. Broncos, at Raiders
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 36.2 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12.8 percent
GO FURTHER
MVP odds: Hurts injury opens door for Mahomes, more
Cincinnati Bengals
The Jets’ loss to the Jaguars on Thursday clinched a playoff berth for the Bengals. Cincinnati last made back-to-back playoff appearances during their five-year run from 2011-2015. Our model gives the Bengals a 68.5 percent chance of winning the AFC North.
Remaining Schedule: At Patriots, Vs. Bills vs. Ravens
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 3.7 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 6.3 percent
Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars’ win Thursday night puts more pressure on the Titans, who have lost four straight, will “likely” be without Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season and now have just a half-game lead in the standings. ‘AFC South ahead. from Tennessee’s Week 16 game against the Texans.
The Jaguars won the first head-to-head meeting with the Titans. The second matchup, at Jacksonville in Week 18, is shaping up to be a winner-takes-all matchup as long as the Jaguars post an identical or better record than the Titans over the next two weeks.
If the Titans enter Week 18 a game ahead of the Jaguars, a Jacksonville win in the regular-season finale would even the two teams’ overall records and give the Jaguars the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the Jaguars enter Week 18 one game ahead of the Titans, a Tennessee win would give the Titans the division based on a superior division record, as both teams would enter their regular season finale 3-2 against the ‘AFC South on this stage. Like the Titans, the Jaguars have one more game against the Texans on their schedule.
Our model gives Tennessee a 46.3 percent chance to win the AFC South for the third straight year.
Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, vs. Cowboys, to Jaguars
Odds: To make the playoffs: 47.7 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.6 percent
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens can clinch a playoff spot this weekend under any of five scenarios involving wins or ties for them and wins, losses or ties for up to seven other teams. There’s even a scenario that puts Baltimore, regardless of the outcome, if the Patriots lose, the Browns, Raiders and Titans lose or tie and the Chargers win.
But how The AthleticJeff Zrebiec writes, it will be hard to consider the Ravens a serious contender come playoff time without a version of Lamar Jackson who can put this team on his back. The quarterback will miss his third straight game with a knee injury.
Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Steelers at Bengals
Odds: To make the playoffs: 96.7 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.5 percent
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers clinch a playoff berth with a win at Indianapolis on Monday and a combination of losses or ties by the Raiders, Patriots, Jets and/or Dolphins. According to our model, they face the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, starting with a trip to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that will start quarterback Nick Foles for the first time this weekend.
The Chargers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins and have a better conference record (6-4) than a pair of seven-win teams: the Patriots (5-4) and Jets (5-6). The Jaguars are also 6-4 against the AFC after Thursday night’s win.
Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Rams, at Broncos
Odds: To make the playoffs: 85.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.7 percent
Miami Dolphins
Losers of three straight, the Dolphins are out of the running for a playoff spot this weekend. Their upcoming games against the Patriots and Jets are potentially big-hitting, given that both teams currently sit close to them in the standings.
Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Patriots, vs. jets
Odds: To make the playoffs: 82.5 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.2 percent
On the hunt
- Patriots (7-7) | Odds of making the playoffs: 23.0 percent
- Jets (7-8) | 5.4 percent
- Jaguars (7-8) | 54.9 percent
- Browns (6-8) | < 1.0 percent
- Steelers (6-8) | < 1.0 percent
- Raiders (6-8) | 3.0 percent
Removed
- Broncos (4-10)
- Colts (4-9-1)
- Texans (1-12-1)
NFC Playoff Image
SeedTeamRecordWeek 16 result
x-1
13-1
in SONG
y-2
11-3
against NYG
y-3
10-4
vs. WAS
4
6-8
and ARI
x-5
10-4
vs. PHI
6
8-5-1
that MIN
7
7-6-1
in SF
x — Playoff spot secured | y — Securing division title
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles, who will be without Jalen Hurts this weekend, punched their ticket to the playoffs in Week 14, but still haven’t officially clinched the NFC East or secured the No. 1 seed. shows how both can do in week 16:
- Win the NFC East with a win or a tie against the Cowboys
- Get the No. 1 seed with a win against the Cowboys or a tie against the Cowboys and a Vikings loss or tie against the Giants.
Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Saints, vs. giants
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 95.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 16.5 percent
Minnesota Vikings
Even if the Vikings lose, they can’t finish worse than the No. 3 seed. They can thank the dismal state of the NFC South for that.
According to our model, Minnesota has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule.
Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, to Packers, to Bears
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 1.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 9.0 percent
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers acknowledge their odds of landing the No. 1 seed are slim, but San Francisco made it clear this week that they’re gunning to win out and overtake the Vikings for the No. 2 seed.
Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, to Raiders, vs. cardinals
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 1.7 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.2 percent
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 6-8 Bucs remain one game ahead of the other three teams in their division, all of whom are 5-9. Surprisingly, the Panthers control their own destiny as they won their first matchup against the Bucs. The second comes in Tampa in Week 17. Our model gives Carolina a 10.4 percent chance to win the NFC South, compared to 83.7 percent for the Bucs.
Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Panthers, at Falcons
Odds: To make the playoffs: 83.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.3 percent
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys clinched a playoff spot last week when the Giants beat the Commanders, but according to our model, Dallas has just a 3.6 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 1.8 percent chance of getting the first No. 1 seed.
Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Titans, at Commanders
Odds: To reach the playoffs: 100 percent | To win bye: 1.8 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 5.1 percent
New York Giants
The Giants can secure their first playoff berth since 2016 this weekend with a win against the Vikings and a combination of losses to the Commanders, Lions and Seahawks. Just a win in Minnesota would push the Giants’ playoff odds above 90 percent.
Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Colts, at Eagles
Odds: To make the playoffs: 80.1 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.9 percent
GO FURTHER
NFL playoff scenarios for Week 16: Who benefits and who loses with each outcome?
Commanders of Washington
Washington gave up major playoff leverage in a loss to the Giants last week. The Commanders are a seven-point underdog heading into their road matchup against the 49ers.
Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Browns vs. Cowboys
Odds: To make the playoffs: 37.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.8 percent
On the hunt
- Seahawks (7-7) | Odds of making the playoffs: 18.1 percent
- Lions (7-7) | 57.1 percent
- Packaging machines (6-8) | 6.9 percent
- Panthers (5-9) | 10.4 percent
- Falcons (5-9) | 3.0 percent
- Saints (5-9) | 3.1 percent
Removed
- Bears (3-11)
- Cardinals (4-10)
- Bouquets (4-10)
(Photo: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)