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NFL Week 7 picks
Pick Commanders +4.5 Best Book Time 1pm ET
Chris Raybon: Last week, I pointed out that the Packers didn’t match up well against the Jets defense because of their ability to press, and it’s more of the same this week for Green Bay against the Washington football team.” .> Commanders Washington ranks third in pressure rate (29.3%), and the fact that it ranks seven points higher in pressure rate than in blitz rate (28.4%, 10th) indicates that they can go home with their four-man run.
Without Davante Adams to win quickly off the line, Rodgers is struggling under pressure, with his passer rating dropping from 103.2 in a clean pocket to 65.0 when under duress. Rodgers started to rely on Robert Tonyan more last week, connecting with him on 10 of 12 passes for 90 yards, but that may not be there this week as Washington is third in DVOA in passes to TEs.
Tail Raybon in FanDuel: Commanders +4.5
You’d think Matt LaFleur would eventually score more running plays given the presence of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but that doesn’t seem like a quick fix either, as Washington’s defense ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Washington’s offense will be no worse with Taylor Heinicke than it was with Carson Wentz (IR, thumb) and should have success with its three-headed backfield of Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic against a Packers defense that ranked last. DVOA against the run.
The Commanders also have a decisive advantage on special teams, ranking fifth in DVOA while the Packers rank 30th, which could be important in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
According to our Action Labs data, non-division home dogs in Week 7 +7 or less in low-total games have gone 141-102-7 (58%) against the spread (ATS).
Despite facing the likes of Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson for half of their games, the Packers still have just one win by more than 3 points this season.
» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Giants +3 Best Book Time 1:00 PM ET
Chris Raybon: The Giants are lucky to be 5-1, but they match up well against the Jags. The Giants play the third-highest man coverage rate, and Jacksonville ranks 30th in passing yards against man (4.9) and 31st in yards per completion against man (7.5).
Tail Raybon in FanDuel: Commanders +4.5
But due in large part to facing the Colts twice in six games, the Jaguars have faced the second-highest rate of zone coverage in the league, which is inflating their offensive numbers. In last week’s contest, the Colts didn’t even play a man coverage snap.
And in the two games against Indianapolis, Trevor Lawrence completed 45 of 52 passes (86.5%) for 400 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) with three TDs and no interceptions. In his other four games, he has gone 88-for-151 (58.3%) for 997 yards (6.6 YPA) with six scores and four interceptions.
On offense, the Giants should be able to get Saquon Barkley back on board against a Jags defense that has allowed 155.3 scrimmage yards and 2.5 TDs per game to opposing backfields over the last three weeks. After starting his career as a turnover machine, Daniel Jones has made ball security a strength, with just four turnovers in six games, half as many as Lawrence.
According to our Action Labs data, Jones is 12-4 ATS as a road dog, including a perfect 10-0 ATS as a road dog by less than 8 points.
» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Tony Pollard over 34.5 yards rushing (Bet up to 44.5) Best Book Time 1 pm ET
Chris Raybon: Pollard has recorded at least 43 yards in four of six games this season. The two times he didn’t both came against top-tier defenses that rank in the top eight in DVOA in Tampa Bay (eighth) and Washington (fifth). The Lions’ run defense looks nothing like those units, ranking 31st in DVOA.
Pollard is one of the most efficient RBs in the league, averaging 5.1 yards per rush on 372 attempts. That efficiency has helped Pollard rush for 41 or more yards in 13 of 19 games (68%) since last season despite playing behind Ezekiel Elliott.
I have Pollard projected for 49 yards in this matchup.
» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 Odds (-125, Bet Up to -185) Best Book Time 1pm ET
Chris Raybon: Jaire Alexander threw shade for the first time last week, holding Garrett Wilson to no props/reception “>catches on four targets as Wilson finished with just one catch for eight yards on the day.
This week, Alexander is a good bet to follow McLaurin, who leads the Commanders with 387 receiving yards this season. McLaurin would be a good bet to go under that number, even if he wasn’t in danger of being overshadowed by Alexander, as he has had four or fewer receptions in four of six games this season and nine of Heinicke’s 15 starts last season
Overall, McLaurin has topped four catches in just eight of 23 games (35%) since the start of last season. I’m projecting him for 3.8 catches and about a 67% chance of going below 4.5.
» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Chuba Hubbard Under 14.5 receiving yards (-110, bet up to -12.5) Best Book Time 1:00 PM ET
Chris Raybon: Hubbard will likely lead the Panthers backfield in passing snaps, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good bet to top his receiving spot.
The Bucs’ defensive front has obliterated RBs in the passing game, allowing a career-low 10.8 receiving yards per game at the position. With Lavonte David and Devin White flying at linebacker, the Bucs allow just 2.4 yards per target and 3.4 yards per reception to opposing RBs, so Hubbard could catch a handful of balls and still hit underneath. Through six games, Todd Bowles’ defense has yet to allow a RB to go over 14 yards, with just one RB going over 12 yards.
Under is 10-0 for RBs receiving yardage props against the Bucs this year.
» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Christian Kirk Under 4.5 Receptions (+125, bet at -110) Best Book Time 1:00 PM ET
Chris Raybon: Kirk started the season with three six-catch games, but has been held to seven total catches in his last three games. He’s unlikely to get away with much volume against a Giants defense that allows the league’s fewest receptions per game to WRs (9.67).
Kirk’s season average is 4.2 receptions per game, which is what I’m projecting him to be. Even if I raise it conservatively to 4.5, his actual odds of going below 4.5 should be -111, and his actual odds of going below 5.5 should be -244.
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