Reconstructing volcanic eruptions to help scientists predict climate risks: USask research

One meter long ice core with a layer of ash from a volcanic eruption. (Photo: Submitted)

The researchers used sophisticated computer modeling technology to reconstruct a series of volcanic eruptions over the past 11,500 years. The work included estimating, for the first time, the ages and precise amounts of atmospheric sulfur injections for more than 850 historical volcanic eruptions by measuring the sulfur content of ice cores.

“A total of 26 eruptions over the past 11,500 years released more sulfur into the stratosphere than the colossal Tambora eruption in 1815, suggesting that eruptions of this size occur more than twice as often globally than previously thought. thought,” said Sigl, who led the research. project

Sigl also said the research found a link between melting glaciers and increased volcanic activity, a finding that helps scientists predict the potential climate impacts of continued global warming. The results were recently published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

Toohey was responsible for making estimates of the amount of sulfate present in the ice and estimating how stratospheric aerosols from past eruptions have affected the transmission of radiation through the atmosphere. The tools developed by Toohey and his group will allow ice core information to be used in Holocene climate model simulations, as well as providing rapid estimates of the impact of potential future eruptions.

“This work greatly improves our ability to estimate the probability of future climate-relevant large eruptions and their radiative impact, providing a valuable resource for climate risk assessment,” Toohey said.

Link to paper:

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