California’s power grid may be tested like never before, officials warned Monday, as they urged the public to step up conservation efforts or face the prospect of losing power during a historic heat wave that won’t end he has finished roasting the state.
The projected energy load on California’s electric infrastructure exceeds what state officials expect to have available by Labor Day. And Tuesday is expected to be even worse.
That’s when electricity demand is expected to be at an all-time high, California Independent System Operator President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said at a news conference Monday.
“The forecast for Tuesday would be above the highest demand ever,” he said. “Right now our goal is not to see that number.”
To prevent demand from outpacing the state’s supply, Mainzer stressed that consumers would need to increase their electricity conservation efforts two to three times more than they did in the early days of the historic surge. heat
State officials project a need for 48,817 megawatts of electricity Monday, which would leave the state with a shortfall of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, Mainzer said. He said the projected shortfall has created “the highest likelihood of rolling outages we’ve seen so far this summer.”
The expected shortfall prompted grid operators to declare a Stage 1 Energy Emergency Alert on Monday morning. They also announced a Flex Alert for the sixth consecutive day, asking consumers to reduce their electricity use. So far it’s worked, with California residents saving between 600 and 700 megawatts in the past few days.
State regulators extended Monday’s Flex Alert by one hour, from 4 to 10 p.m., asking consumers to avoid appliances, set thermostats at 78 degrees or higher and turn off all non-essential lights during those peak hours .
At around 2.30pm on Monday, the energy market will close and grid operators will have a better idea of what to expect in the afternoon hours. If resources fall too low, energy regulators could initiate a Stage 2 emergency, which would see the state draw down its emergency power reserves, electricity from last-minute imports and generators He estimated the state has about 3,000 megawatts as backup, which provides a small “buffer.”
If stage 3 is reached and power must be shut off, state regulators will ask utilities to determine the best way to abandon their use, likely by rotating between systems, hopefully for a short duration, Mainzer said.
“Blackouts are a possibility today,” he said.
On Tuesday, the state is forecasting a load of 51,000 megawatts, the highest ever for the state. The highest electrical load ever drained by Californians was 50,270 megawatts on July 24, 2006.
Fortunately, the Pacific Northwest has avoided the heat spell, which has allowed California to import some energy from that region. Utilities have agreements to share power during emergencies, Mainzer said.
California grid operators are monitoring the wildfires to make sure they don’t damage generators or transmission lines. Several generators are already offline, straining power supplies.
This week’s heat wave is expected to last until Friday with daytime temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. By early Monday morning, around 3 a.m., temperatures were still in the 80s and 90s in some inland parts of the Bay Area. The National Weather Service extended an excessive heat advisory and a heat advisory until 8 p.m. Thursday. Conditions are dangerous for those vulnerable to the heat and without access to cooling and hydration.
State officials suggest that consumers cool their homes with air conditioners during the day, when electricity demand is not as high.
Severin Borenstein, a UC Berkeley energy professor and ISO board member, noted on Twitter that the public wouldn’t need that much to avoid blackouts.
“Today looks tough Tomorrow looks really tough,” Borenstein tweeted. “But reducing the demand on the system by even 10% would virtually eliminate any concern.”
Matthias Gafni is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: matthias.gafni@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mgafni