We’re just three days away from Wednesday’s trade deadline, and plenty of blockbuster moves have yet to be completed.
We know that big deals historically take until the 11th hour to go through as clubs negotiate and put in as much as they can. And this year, we could be in for an unprecedented amount of star-studded futures trading.
down foxfooty.com.au analyze and predict how the remaining 10 big deals of the trade period go over the line.
Watch Trading Day every weeknight from 5pm EST on Fox Footy – daily news and analysis from the AFL trade period. Stream it live or on demand on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
JOSH DUNKLEY IN BRISBANE
The Western Bulldogs were left frustrated in their latest trade talks with the Lions as the Dunkley deal has reached an impasse. There were reportedly initial discussions about the Dogs getting the Lions’ Pick 15 and a future first-round pick, but Brisbane wanted two second-rounders (30 and 39) and a third-rounder back in the swap. The Lions then opted to trade their Pick 15 to the Giants to accumulate more draft points to help them land the father-son duo of Will Ashcroft and Jaspa Fletcher, thus worsening their hand in acquiring Dunkley. SEN reported the Dogs were left “furious” and are now prepared to let Dunkley go in the pre-season draft, a suggestion Dunkley’s manager Liam Pickering said was “ridiculous” while remaining “confident” that a deal would be made. Something has to give, with dogs and lions needing to meet in the middle of the originally discussed exchange.
Verdict: Bulldogs get Pick 21, future first-round pick and future second-round pick: Lions get Dunkley, Pick 29 and future third-round pick.
How does Dunkley get to the Lions? | 02:09
LUKE JACKSON AT FREMANTLE
Another deal that is at an impasse after Melbourne rejected Fremantle’s offer of Pick 13 and a future first round for the young gun. The Demons are reportedly looking for a top seven pick and a future first round or two top ten selections, both of which the Dockers clearly don’t have. West Coast remains in the picture given Jackson requested a return to Western Australia, not specifically Fremantle, but the Eagles are not considered a genuine landing spot for the former Rising Star winner and premiership player level The Dockers’ equivalent of getting Pick 13 to Pick 7 is about 400 draft points, or a pick in the early 40s, so adding such a pick is another potential means of getting an agreement and it seems the most obvious way at this stage. Regardless, you’d think this one goes to cable.
Verdict: Devils receive Pick 13, future first-round pick and future third-round pick (bound for Kangaroos) – Dockers receive Jackson.
Dees wants top 10 picks for Jackson | 02:55
BRODIE GRUNDY IN MELBOURNE
Collingwood has commanded a top-25 pick for Grundy, who is due to contribute $300,000 of his $1 million salary until 2025, rejecting Melbourne’s offer of pick 27 receipt of a selection exchange with the Power. Reports indicate that the Grundy trade may therefore have to wait until the Demons reach a deal with the Dockers for Luke Jackson that would likely see Melbourne enter Pick 13 and a future first rounder. There have been whispers that the Magpies could look for a selection slide that would see them receive Picks 13 and 27 from Melbourne in exchange for Grundy and Pick 16. Alternatively, the Pies could look for the future first rounder lined up at Fremantle, or that Melbourne s attached Pick 41, 50 in future third round at 27.
Verdict: The Magpies get Picks 27 and 41, the Demons get Grundy and Pick 47 (tied for the Bulldogs).
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS IN PORT ADELAIDE
North Melbourne and Port Adelaide will resume talks for the former Pick 1 on Monday, according to Channel 7, and will discuss whether additional teams need to join the swap. It comes after a massive four-team trade, including GWS and West Coast, collapsed after the AFL rejected it, which would have seen the Power deal future first and second round picks and the Roos win the Selects 2 and 3 and downloaded the 1. League rules state that clubs cannot trade multiple future selections if their future first-rounder is involved. And so it’s back to square one, although the four-time deal could still be revised with some tweaking. The Giants remain a real chance to get involved given their plethora of selections, while West Coast have a valuable card at Pick 2 and West Coast’s Junior Rioli wants to make it to Alberton.
Verdict: Kangaroos get pick 2 and 3, Power gets Horne-Francis and Rioli, Giants get pick 1, Eagles get picks 8 and 12.
GWS interested in Pick 1 | 02:49
JACOB HOPPER IN RICHMOND
Richmond and Greater Western Sydney took out Tim Taranto’s deal first as it was easier to negotiate given Taranto was not under contract; it’s a different story for Hopper. Having given up the No. 12 and No. 19 picks from Taranto, the Tigers have less to play with than Hopper, which is why a player has been discussed as part of the deal. Ivan Soldo has completed a medical with the Giants, while the Tigers have all but ruled out trading Hugo Ralphsmith. At the heart of the deal will be pick no. 31 and a future first rounder, but that might not be enough, hence the addition of a player.
Verdict: Giants get Pick 31, future first round pick and Ivan Soldo – Tigers get Hopper.
OLLIE HENRY AT GEELONG
Cats and pies had very little in common to start the trade period when it came to Ollie Henry. An initial offer of the No. 38 pick was rejected by Pies officials for the former top-20 draft pick. The Cats no longer have the No. 18 pick, traded for Tanner Bruhn, while a future second-round pick went out the door in a pick swap with the Lions. The pick Geelong received as part of that deal, number 25, is likely to be the next bid. Since the Cats have traded a future second-round pick, they no longer have their future first-round pick to trade. They are expected to carry the No. 7 pick as part of a deal for Jack Bowes. They’re keen to take the No. 7 pick in the draft, but the Pies will no doubt ask them to split or trade him for Henry and a later first-round pick. The Cats don’t have much to play with in terms of later picks.
Verdict: Magpies get Pick 25 – Cats get Henry.
Will the cats trade Henry? | 01:39
TOM MITCHELL IN COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood have plenty of other priorities over Tom Mitchell right now – making bids for Brodie Grundy and Ollie Henry among them. Mitchell is looking for more midfield minutes and would get them at the Pies. The pick Collingwood has to give up for Mitchell would depend on the salary split between the two clubs in the final year of Mitchell’s contract with Hawthorn. Collingwood will be reluctant to give up anything close to their No.16 pick. Even if they get No.25 pick in exchange for Ollie Henry, they won’t be keen to part with that for Mitchell. Something around the 41 and 50 mark could do for the Hawks if they want to offload some cap space and Mitchell wants to move. These two options are the equivalent of pick no. 28 in value.
Verdict: Hawks get picks 41 and 50: Herons get Mitchell.
RORY LOBB AT WESTERN BULLDOGS
Fremantle have publicly refused to entertain the idea of trading Rory Lobb, but he has every chance of playing for the Western Bulldogs in 2023. Lobb may be contracted to the Dockers for next year, but his future effectively depends on Luke Jackson meets the Dockers. time when the commercial period is made. The Dockers and Dees continue to haggle over Jackson’s value and that is holding up a number of offers this trade period, most notably Brodie Grundy’s move to Melbourne. Lobb’s future also hinges on a trade the Dogs make with Brisbane for Josh Dunkley, as one of the picks acquired in that deal could be used to land Lobb. Again, the pick used depends on how much of Lobb’s salary covers the Dogs in 2023, but the Dogs would be very reluctant to give up a top 20 pick for a player nearing 30.
Verdict: Dockers get Pick 30 – Bulldogs get Lobb.
IZAK RANKINE AT ADELAIDE CROWS
It’s a surprise Rankine isn’t already a Raven given the South Australian requested a trade at the end of August, and the crux of the deal has been set for some time centered around the pick 5 from Gold Coast. Reports this week indicated the two clubs were nearing a trade that would see the Crows land Rankine and a late pick in this year’s draft in exchange for Pick 5, a future third rounder and a future fourth rounder . There could be some haggling over which late pick Adelaide gets, or the Suns could simply have opted to use the weekend to sleep on it. Either way, you see this will be one of the first to be completed on Monday.
Verdict: Suns receive Pick 5, future third round and future fourth round – Crows receive Rankine and Pick 52 (tied with Magpies).
‘The best or the worst’ for Rankine | 03:49
JUNIOR RIOLI IN PORT ADELAIDE
West Coast are willing to let Junior Rioli head into the pre-season draft if he doesn’t get what he wants. Having declined Port’s second-round compensation pick from Karl Amon’s free agency exit, the Eagles want Port’s Pick 8, but the Power is adamant Rioli is not in the frame. The stalemate has seen both clubs involved in the Horne-Francis deal, which appears to be the most likely way to deal Rioli. If kept separate, though, a second-round pick is widely considered the best offer, but the Eagles have also tried to land a player. There are reports that the Eagles have asked both Mitch Georgiades and Dan Houston questions, but the Power are standing firm in their message that a player will not be on the table for a Rioli deal. Xavier Duursma is another name floating around, but that was quickly shut down.
Verdict (as above in the Horne-Francis deal): The Eagles get picks 8 and 12,…