- Ukrainian forces are closing in on Russian-held Kherson
- Retaking the city would be a great victory in the war
- Kherson acts as a gateway to Crimea, annexed in 2014
- Soldiers in the trenches anticipate a fierce battle ahead
FRONT LINE WEST KHERSON, Ukraine, Nov 4 (Reuters) – Oleh, the commander of a Ukrainian mechanized infantry unit dug into the trenches west of Kherson, is confident his Russian enemies will see forced to abandon the strategic port due to the winter weather, logistical blockades and the threat of encirclement.
But neither he nor his men believe the Russians will go quickly or quietly, and neither do they intend to leave them.
His comments raise the specter of a bloodbath in coming weeks for control of a key city on the west bank of the Dnipro River that acts as a gateway to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
“They will continue to fight. They will defend their positions as long as they have the ability to do so,” said Oleh, 26, a battle-hardened major who has risen through the ranks since enlisting as a teenager 10 years ago. “It’s going to be a tough fight.”
Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the administration installed by Russia in the Kherson region, said Thursday that he expected Russian forces to fight back.
“If we leave Kherson, it will be a big blow,” he added, in comments broadcast by Russian television RT.
The contest for the only provincial capital taken by Moscow in the full-scale invasion launched on February 24 may be one of the most consequential of the war so far.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, it would be another setback after a series of major losses on the battlefield since mid-August.
With control of the western bank of the Dnipro, military experts said, Ukrainian forces would have a springboard from which to seize a bridgehead on the east side for an advance into Crimea.
Crimea is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Kyiv has made the recovery of the peninsula its sworn goal.
If Kherson fell to the counteroffensive, the experts added, it would also be a political humiliation for Putin, as Kherson is one of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions that he has announced will be part of Russia “forever” with great strides. . September 30
“It would be a massive blow, mainly politically,” said Philip Ingram, a retired senior British military intelligence officer. “And it would cost him (Putin) militarily. If the Ukrainians could get a bridgehead on the east side of the Dnipro, that would be even worse for the Russians.”
The Ukrainians “will be able to hit the Russians defending the approaches to Crimea,” said retired U.S. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Forces Europe.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it appeared the Russians had already begun “an organized and gradual withdrawal” from the western bank of the Dnipro.
SPICY OF ATTACK
Thousands of civilians in and around the city have been evacuated to the east bank of the Dnipro in recent weeks after Russian-appointed occupation authorities warned of the dangers posed by Ukrainian advances.
On Friday, Putin publicly approved the evacuation, which Kyiv says has included forced deportations of civilians out of Russian-occupied territory, a war crime Russia denies.
Occupation authorities have also moved administrative offices and records to the east bank, and a Western source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said most Russian commanders had also transferred their bases.
The US official and Ukrainian commanders said the Russians had been reinforcing their front lines, including deploying recently mobilized reservists, in an attempt to better protect the withdrawal.
Some Ukrainian soldiers believe poorly trained Russian reservists are being sent forward “like lambs to the slaughter” while more experienced troops are digging into defensive lines further back, according to the US official.
An orderly withdrawal could prove challenging for the Russians, requiring coordination, deception to conceal movements, communications discipline, and intense artillery strikes to suppress Ukrainian advances.
But Ukrainian troops could also face serious obstacles that could slow their takeover of Kherson, including booby traps and concentrated Russian artillery and rocket fire from the east bank, Hodges said.
As the sides fought intermittent artillery duels on Friday, Oleh’s 100-man unit took advantage of the unusually mild weather to clean weapons and install floorboards in bunkers covered in dirt and logs that are lined with insulation thermal and with portable generators and wood burning. stoves
The unit, with six armored personnel carriers, took up its positions in September after Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops back to Kherson’s border with Mykolaiv province.
Oleh said the Russians were running out of time as January would bring ice floes down the Dnipro that could block ferry operations.
He was eager to strike at the enemy’s weak points to induce panic among the reservists that might turn into a rout.
“If we don’t start an attack, they’re just going to sit there,” he said. “The mobilized are good for us because they generate panic. Panic is contagious like a disease. It spreads.”
Additional reporting by Phil Stewart and Steve Holland in Washington; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Daniel Wallis
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