US employers added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said on Friday, again beating expectations for a labor market still recovering from the pandemic but under increasing pressure from inflation and by the escalation of interest rates to curb prices. .
The impressive performance, which returns total employment to the level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns, indicates that a slowdown in some industries has not been enough to slow overall hiring. And it provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession.
But most forecasters expect that momentum to slow markedly later this year as companies cut payrolls to meet weaker demand.
“At this stage, things are looking good,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Bank. “Let’s say December or early next year, that’s where we could see much softer numbers.”
The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent in June, matching its 50-year low on the eve of the pandemic.
Last week, the government reported that the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, had contracted for the second consecutive quarter when adjusted for inflation. The data showed a sharp decline in homebuilding, a decline in business investment and a slow increase in consumer spending.
These trends are bound to affect the labor market in general, even if not uniformly or immediately.
Amy Glaser, senior vice president at global staffing agency Adecco, said her company was still struggling to fill hourly jobs, particularly in retail and logistics. Employers may not have made these positions attractive enough, and increasingly, they can do without them.
“I think we have a gap in the jobs available and the desire to do those jobs,” Ms. Glaser said. “We know there are tens of thousands of warehouse jobs, but standing for 10 hours a day is not everyone’s cup of tea.”